Here’s why gold is about to fall 10 percent: Technical analyst

Gold's shining rally could soon be over, according to one technical analyst who sees trouble in the charts for the yellow metal.

Piper Jaffray technical analyst Craig Johnson believes that gold's "primary trend is still lower" based on a long-term downtrend that he thinks has been in the works for years.

Looking at a long-term chart of gold dating back almost a decade, Johnson sees a downtrend that began in 2011, when gold hit record all-time highs. Based on that downtrend, Johnson believes that gold's rally this year is really just temporary and investors should be careful of an impending drop in gold prices — even if Donald Trump were to win Tuesday's election.

"The recent price action that we've been seeing has been nothing but a relief rally," Johnson said on Tuesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "I think if you've got a Trump win, you've got a slight push higher, but it's going to have to take a move to about 1,350 or 1,400 to reverse that long-term downtrend."

Gold has rallied more than 20 percent year to date, but Johnson believes that the yellow metal could tumble as much as 10 percent to as low as $1,150 if it were to follow the downtrend he believes is still taking place.

But that isn't to say that gold prices couldn't rise in the short-term should Trump pull through at the polls on Tuesday. Erin Gibbs, chief investment officer at S&P Global, believes that the correlation between gold and the election is still relatively strong.

"We're looking at maybe a 45 percent correlation [between a Trump victory and gold prices]," said Gibbs. "So gold may even go up by 3 percent if he wins."

Gold was down again on Tuesday after a dramatic drop on Monday.


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Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET). In addition, he contributes to CNBC and CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

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