2,190 or 1,948: The S&P’s next stop depends on who’s elected, says technical analyst

The election will have a profound effect on the market, according to technical analyst Rich Ross of Evercore ISI.

According to Ross, the outcome will determine whether the S&P 500 goes to the top or bottom of its recent range.

The large-cap index is in a "tactical bound," Ross said Monday on CNBC's "Power Lunch," adding that "the way I see it, [the market would reach] 2,190 if Clinton wins, and if Trump wins, I actually see it going the other way, [with a] potential downside to 1,948," he said.


In other words, Ross believes the market would rally 3 percent if Hillary Clinton prevails, but a Donald Trump victory would mean the S&P falls by almost 9 percent.

These are not random levels. While 2,190 is just about the market's all-time high, achieved in August, 1,948 appears to have previously served as a level of resistance, which means that it now could be a point of support.

Looking more long-term beyond the election, Chantico Global founder Gina Sanchez actually sees even more downside should Trump win. According to Sanchez, Trump's policies would ultimately hurt the economy and thus the market.

"When we modeled Trump scenarios, Oxford Economics showed that the potential downturn in the economy could be devastating if he were even allowed a fraction of what he was trying to do," she said. "So I think that the market drop could actually be 10 percent or more."

The S&P 500 stayed mostly flat during Tuesday morning trading. Stocks broke a nine-session losing streak with a dramatic rise on Monday after the FBI reiterated that Clinton should not face criminal charges, following the review of newly discovered emails.


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Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

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