US Markets

Despite Trump rally, market direction will hinge on interest rates: Analyst Peter Boockvar

Boockvar: Question is how markets respond to higher interest rates

A Donald Trump victory sent stocks higher the day after the presidential election, but noted market-watcher Peter Boockvar warned that the direction of the market will really hinge on the direction of interest rates.

"The question is how do equity prices respond to the rise in interest rates when the last five years they've been medicated on low interest rates?" the chief market analyst with The Lindsey Group said in an interview with CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Wednesday.

Despite predictions of a sell-off on a Trump win, the stock market soared Wednesday after the Republican nominee's surprising victory. The Dow Jones industrial average came within striking distance of record highs, closing up about 250 points.

President-elect Donald Trump speaks at his election night rally in New York, U.S., November 9, 2016.
Carlos Barria | Reuters

While market-watchers have also suggested the bond bull market will end with Trump in office, Boockvar said he believes that bull market is already over.

The beginning of the end began in late August/early September after moves by Japan on long-term bonds and when the European Central Bank acknowledged it was running out of things to buy, he noted.

On top of that, he said foreigners are selling U.S. Treasurys and inflationary pressures are starting to percolate.

"Then you throw on potentially a big fiscal package, rising debts and deficits," Boockvar added.

The election results also cast into doubt the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate hike. Market expectations for a rate hike in December briefly fell to around 50 percent, before holding around 76 percent, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Boockvar believes the bond market is doing the job for the Fed because it knows Chair Janet Yellen is going to drag her feet in responding to the rise in inflation.

"Raising rates once a year is not going to do it," he said. "This brings a problem. If in 2017 she starts raising rates because the market is forcing her, that's much different than her raising rates on her own volition, and that's a different outcome in terms of their policy."

— CNBC's Melody Myers and Fred Imbert contributed to this report.