The markets have spoken on Trump's agenda

President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) at the U.S. Capitol November 10, 2016 in Washington, DC.
Zach Gibson | Getty Images
President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) at the U.S. Capitol November 10, 2016 in Washington, DC.

Like political pundits who failed to call the election, economic analysts are looking at the Donald Trump presidency as "The Art of the Possible" as opposed to "The Art of the Deal."

Despite the fact that many, including myself, expected a different outcome, one must be far more dispassionate about analyzing what this means for markets and the economy.

I think the financial markets are telling us, loudly and clearly, that President-elect Trump's deals are all quite possible.

The jump in stock indexes, including two consecutive record highs for the Dow; the run-up in banks, financials, pharma and bio-tech; the explosion in the price of copper; the shocking jump in interest rates and a meaningful slump in emerging markets, all tell us that investors are making large-scale bets that a Republican president, and Republican Congress, will move swiftly to enact as much of candidate Trump's agenda as swiftly as possible.

The first thing that a President Trump can and, will likely, do is reverse many of President Obama's executive orders.

He can also roll back specific regulations, like the Department of Labor's Fiduciary Standard rule for financial advisors.

That rule requires F.A.'s to put a client's interests before his, or her, own; offer greater transparency on potential conflicts of interest and disclose more about how they are compensated when selling specific products.

The rule, opposed by the financial services industry, to a certain extent, could have been a profit-limiting regulation, which is now expected to be among the first regulations removed from the books.

"For those who think compromise is in the air, the markets have already told us that a rather large portion of the trump agenda is being priced in to individual stocks and the broader market."

Health care stocks, under pressure amid expectations that President Hillary Clinton, and a Democratic-controlled Senate, would expand the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and move to put limits on drug prices, is no longer a worry.

Through the budget reconciliation process, President Trump, and Congress, can de-fund significant portions of both the ACA and Dodd-Frank, the post-crisis financial legislation that created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and placed more restrictions on banking practices.

Bank stocks have hit new all-time highs since the election, while health care has rallied.

A large-scale tax cut is now possible, which would comprise lower corporate and individual tax rates, lower capital gains and dividend taxes while the estate tax may well be eliminated.

Comprehensive tax reform, which takes longer, could also include repatriation "holiday" for corporations that hold a significant cash horde overseas. The proceeds of those repatriated taxes could be used to fund infrastructure programs, hence the jump in the price of copper and heavy industrial stocks.

Bond market interest rates have jumped on the rising expectation that such measures will not only boost growth, but also fuel inflationary pressures and lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively than expected. "Lower for longer" may no longer be the most appropriate mandate for the Fed, irrespective of who's in charge of the nation's central banks.

President Trump, experts say, could brand China a "currency manipulator" on Day 1 in office and take steps to build a wall on our southern border, by shifting budget dollars toward that project, without an act of Congress.

Emerging markets have fallen in anticipation of such moves.

That's just the start. Many suggest that orthodox Republicans in Congress may oppose President Trump on his trade agenda, but in the "art of the deal," it's more likely that they give in to him to pass their economic agenda than the other way around.

For those who think compromise is in the air, the markets have already told us that a rather large portion of the trump agenda is being priced in to individual stocks and the broader market.

Those who listened to political pundits missed the move in Washington. I would recommend that the market is a much better barometer of the art of the possible.

The message of the markets is clear. Passing the Trump agenda, much like his candidacy, is not only possible, but also very likely a new reality.

Commentary by Ron Insana, a CNBC and MSNBC contributor and the author of four books on Wall Street. Follow him on Twitter @rinsana.

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