"Almost every economic data right now is effectively backward looking. Post-Trump's election, you want to look at the rotation and the overall level of stock prices, and look at the slope of the yield curve. Those things tell me that growth is going to meaningfully accelerate, relative to expectations," LaVorgna said. Stocks have stalled but some stocks continue to gain, like financials, up 2 percent Monday.
LaVorgna said he expects Trump's fiscal stimulus and tax cut proposals to have a positive impact, and he sees growth picking up to a rate of 3 to 4 percent, sometime in late 2017, early 2018.
The spending and tax cut proposals have prompted a big move in interest rates since the election, and a stock market rally. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of 2.30 percent Tuesday and was at 2.26 percent in late trading. Pre-election it was at 1.80, but so far strategists say the yield move is not a problem for the market, though the move is affecting individual stocks and sectors.
"I think most people had expected interest rates to move up over time, but this obviously is a little quicker than most expected," said Bill Stone, PNC Wealth Management chief investment strategist. "You've seen the fallout in the market with interest rate sensitive stocks getting hit very hard, and on the other side, stocks like the financials are having a party."
Stone said it makes sense for the market to ease off a little after its run, and longer term its move will be impacted by how Trump prioritizes his agenda.
"History would say after an election you typically do have some pretty good markets," he said. Stocks can continue to rise "if the market continues to see the priorities are corporate tax reform, personal tax cuts … and more deregulation … if that's what it looks like, the priorities are versus the more protectionist things he's talked about. If you start to see a slide into a real consideration of those protectionist impulses, then we have some trouble."
Stocks ended mixed Monday, with the Dow rising 21 to 18,868, the sixth day of gains. But the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower. The S&P was basically flat and down just a fraction of a point at 2164, while the Nasdaq fell 18 to 5,218 on continued selling in the tech names — Facebook, Amazon.com, Netflix and others. Traders are watching the level of 2,150 as key support for the S&P.