Failure by OPEC to agree on a deal to cut production could push the oil price back under $40 a barrel, says the Global Head of Commodity Strategy at Canada's RBC Capital Markets.
Speaking to CNBC on Monday morning, Helima Croft warned of the significance of the oil cartel's ability to press ahead with the tentative deal to limit production, the outline of which was first announced in late September.
According to the details revealed at the time, the deal would see the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lower its production to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day, in its first agreement to reduce supply since 2008.
"It's binary. If you get a deal done you affirm the case for 50 (dollars per barrel). Failure to launch, you're below 40," Croft warned.
"We're not nearly as complacent as Khalid al-Falih that they can survive this easily," she added.