Tax experts across the political spectrum agree that the plan Trump has proposed would benefit the richest Americans the most.
The left-leaning Tax Policy Center estimates that the lowest 20 percent of taxpayers would see their incomes increase by an average of $110, a rise of 0.8 percent. The middle 20 percent would receive $1,010, a 1.8 percent increase. The top 20 percent, would see $16,660, or a 6.6 percent rise; within that group, the top 1 percent would receive $214,690, or 13.5 percent.
Using "dynamic scoring" estimates Republicans favor, the more conservative Tax Foundation still shows the greatest benefits at the top. In the foundation's model, the lowest 20 percent of taxpayers would see after-tax incomes rise by 6.9 percent to 8.1 percent, depending on how the Trump administration resolves ambiguities about some features of its plan.
The middle 20 percent would get 7.7 percent to 9 percent. The top 20 percent would get 8.7 percent to 12.3 percent, and the top 1 percent would see a 12.2 percent-19.9 percent boost in after-tax income.
The state-by-state income data analyzed by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities comes from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. It details how those top-income households who benefit the most live disproportionately in pro-Clinton states, while the lower-income households who benefit the least live disproportionately in pro-Trump states.
For instance, in Washington, D.C. — the very "swamp" Trump has pledged to drain — more than 1 of every 3 households has income high enough to fall into that top 20 percent category nationally. Just behind in concentration of affluence are Maryland (31 percent of households in the highest income group); New Jersey (31 percent), Massachusetts (30 percent), Connecticut (30 percent), Hawaii (29 percent), California (26 percent) and Virginia (26 percent). All those states backed Clinton.
By contrast, just 10 percent of households in Mississippi, 11 percent in West Virginia, 12 percent in Arkansas, 13 percent in Alabama and South Dakota, and 14 percent in Montana and Oklahoma fall among the top income group. Those states backed Trump. All but five of the states the president-elect carried, according to the Census, have more households in the lowest 20 percent income group than in the top 20 percent.
Republicans lawmakers insist the merits of tax plans turn on broader considerations. "The key to me is that what tax reform ought to be about is growth," Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the third-ranking Republican in the chamber, said in an interview.