Sports giants Nike and Under Armour, both part of the luxury index some ETFs track, have had a rough year, as well. Nike stock is down almost 30 percent in the last year, with little change since the election, and Under Armour's loss of more than half of its value since last December includes a single-digit percentage dip since the election.
The sports companies face some investor fears that Trump's opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal will hurt their supply chains, but the bigger deal is a slow-to-clear inventory glut in athletic apparel — and for Under Armour, a flagship shoe endorsed by basketball star Stephen Curry that isn't taking off, Morgan Stanley analyst Jay Sole said.
"Retro" basketball sneakers remain the hot look so, from a fashion standpoint, the Curry 3 is not on trend," as well as being too expensive, Sole wrote in a report. "We believe U.S. basketball footwear must grow 70 percent year-over-year to meet the Street's fiscal 2017 sales expectation and increasingly doubt this will happen."
For investors who think tax cuts will ultimately benefit consumer spending and luxury sales, the best advice may be to look closely — and invest selectively — because a rising tide of spending may not lift all luxury boats.
— By Tim Mullaney, special to CNBC.com