The stock market has had a tremendous run on the prospect of deregulation, lower corporate tax rates and repatriation of overseas earnings under President-elect Donald Trump — but Jim Cramer sees trouble ahead.
"I can't remember a time in my investing career when we whistled past more graveyards. Things really could be this good, for sure, but maybe we'll realize that a cemetery can be a spooky place," the "Mad Money" host said.
After a historical rally, Cramer fears that investors could be set up to be spooked by the many issues that plague the stock market.
Cramer boiled down his concerns into seven categories: oil, China, cabinet selections, Trump's tweets, interest rates, the Italian bank bailout and a possible rebellion in Congress.
Oil, which closed sharply up on Monday, was the first concern. This concerned Cramer. Usually a jump in oil prices is a sign that the world is getting better. But this new rally was based on nothing more than OPEC discipline and a reduction in production. If Trump takes issue with the production cut, it could prompt estimates to be cut for big users of oil, like the airlines or cruise companies, Cramer said,
"Historically, a cartel price is not good for the markets. Trump certainly doesn't like OPEC," Cramer said.
Trump also seemed to be serious about standing up to China. This was evident in Trump's two-China policy. Cramer fears China could take action and ban the iPhone or go after Yum China. He warned not to get too comfortable with any company that has a large Chinese portfolio.
"Trump seems to be betting that China itself is a paper tiger. All I can say is that if you own the stock of a company that does a ton of business in the People's Republic, that is now a real risk factor given Trump's insistence on teaching the Chinese a lesson," Cramer said.
Cramer thinks Trump's new cabinet could begin to worry professional money managers, too. Trump's selections reflected to Cramer as a massive overhaul of some major departments, and that could be frightening to some investors who aren't used to this scale of change.
Trump's calls and tweets to business people could be too out of control and unpredictable for some money managers, Cramer said. His tweets about Lockheed Martin are just one in an increasingly large number of reactions that investors have come to expect after he attacked United Technologies, Ford, Boeing and drug companies.
Interest rates keep climbing, too, and the dollar continues to go higher. Historically, these are things that would usually gut the market and hit the stocks of international companies hard.
"The numbers might have to come down for those companies," Cramer said.
There was also no resolution of the bailout of Italy's Monte dei Paschi over the weekend. The bank has a mountain of debt, 48 billion euros, and Cramer doesn't think investors are ready for a bank to fail right now.
Finally, what if Congress rebels? It could be possible that they won't go along with Trump's agenda or bank stocks don't get the regulatory relief they want.
"I actually wish the market would take a pause to assess the risks," Cramer said.
So, while Cramer is also excited by the talk of growth on Wall Street, he was also concerned. Investors are set up to be spooked, he said.