CME Group uses fed funds futures contracts, which traders purchase in anticipation of where they think the rate will be, to calculate probabilities for rate moves ahead.
As of Thursday morning, the results indicated the next rate rise will come in June, which has a 78.5 percent chance of a hike. From there, the probability of a September rate increase is slightly better than even, at close to 55 percent.
However, the chances of a third increase in December remain low, at just better than 46 percent.
Of course, fed futures trading is volatile and subject to a whole slew of variables likely to change significantly over the next 12 months. However, the market is treading cautiously when it comes to Fed expectations.
After all, while the change as indicated Wednesday raised some eyebrows, the central bank's thinking really hasn't changed that much when looked at across a broader time frame. In September, FOMC members indicated the likely funds rate at the end of 2017 would be 1.1 percent, but in June it was 1.6 percent. This week's estimate of 1.4 percent, then, essentially represents a compromise between the two forecasts.
"Put another way, the Federal Reserve has actually not changed its basis perspective on the trajectory for interest rates through 2017 in the back half of 2016," Nick Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex, said in a note. "A little nip here, a tiny tuck there. ... But (Wednesday's) change was far from a radical redo of its expectations."
Skepticism about the Fed's willingness to go for three hikes in 2017 extends beyond the Chicago futures desks.