OPEC's first oil output cuts since 2008 take effect next week, but analysts see little chance members of the producer group will stick to their quotas.
"It's inevitable. Somebody's going to cheat," ClearView Energy Partners managing director Kevin Book told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday.
"You get until Jan. 21 to believe your hoped-for outcomes and then you converge with reality. Historically OPEC always blows past its targets," he said, referring to the date the cartel's monitoring committee first meets.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed last month to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day in a bid to reduce huge crude stockpiles that have built up during a more than two-year price rout. Other producers committed to reducing output by a total of nearly 558,000 barrels a day, with about half of the cuts coming from Russia.
OPEC members do not exceed their quotas by much if one averages the cheating over time, but it will take a big cut this time around because inventory levels remain very high, said Book, who heads ClearView's commodities research team.
He also dismissed the notion of "ROPEC" — coordinated action by OPEC and Russia — as a myth.
"We've been waiting to see this come through for decades. Is this going to be the time? Probably not this time either," Book said.