Shares of Cliffs Natural Resources have soared about 15 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday, following base metals prices higher. At this point, the stock is up more than 70 percent in the past three months, but AlphaShark's Andrew Keene says the rally isn't over.
The company has been the beneficiary of an improving outlook and the expectation that infrastructure spending is set to increase, at least in the U.S. More recently, China's Hebei province announced plans this week to cut steel and iron production, according to the Xinhua news agency. This is obviously good news for iron supplier Cliffs.
Though Cliffs is actually below its early December highs, it has recently passed its 20- and 50-day moving averages, Keene noted. At this point, the stock is likely to ride its momentum higher, and its recent "resistance" level of $11 will soon become "support," according to the trader.
Bolstering his case, Keene said the stock has attracted bullish options activity.
To determine how high Cliffs can go, Keene looks at a weekly chart of the stock and eyes what he sees as "old support" around $14, which Cliffs last hit over two years ago. "I think it can head somewhere between the $13 and $14 range by April," Keene said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."
As a result, Keene is buying the April 12-strike calls and selling the April 13-strike calls for a total cost of 20 cents per share. For Keene to make money on the trade, Cliffs would have to close above the breakeven point of $12.20 on April expiration.
If Cliffs manages to close above $13 on April 21, this "call spread" will be worth $1, meaning that Keen will have quintupled his money. On the other hand, if the stock closes below $12, the entire amount paid for the trade will be lost.
