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Investors anticipate if Trump rally will last as inauguration looms

Donald Trump
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
Donald Trump

Markets across the globe are on a cautious footing as the countdown to President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration begins.

While his surprise victory in the election held in November last year initially sent shockwaves through financial markets, Wall Street stocks started to recover and have rallied to record highs.

Analysts across the globe said markets preferred Hillary Clinton over Trump as the latter was viewed as a challenge to the world order, a threat to the system that many investors had expected to continue in perpetuity.

However, within hours markets changed route as investors began to expect fiscal stimulus and pro-business and less regulatory policies from Trump. This led to a rally. But is the Trump-rally sustainable?

"It is easy to understand why investor optimism has surged following Trump's victory. The dawn of 'Trumponomics' promises a wave of infrastructure spending and tax cuts and the proposed fiscal splurge will accelerate the cycle," Geir Lode, head of global equities at Hermes Investment Management, wrote in a research note.


The West Front of the U.S. Capitol is prepared for inauguration day on January 19, 2017 in Washington, DC. Donald J. Trump will be sworn in tomorrow as the 45th president of the United States.
Getty Images
The West Front of the U.S. Capitol is prepared for inauguration day on January 19, 2017 in Washington, DC. Donald J. Trump will be sworn in tomorrow as the 45th president of the United States.

Lode explained that Trump has repeatedly shown his commitment to U.S. business interests, and if his proposed corporate tax restructuring proceeds as promised the implications are huge.

"The potential for a 'border tax' is already influencing decision making in the boardroom of major U.S. companies. "

In a series of tweet, Trump had earlier warned automakers to manufacture in the U.S. or pay a hefty 35 percent border tax. Following this, a number of auto companies announced their plans to move their manufacturing to the U.S.

"We believe companies in the U.S. will enjoy favorable conditions in the short-term, but we remain concerned that at any moment a stray tweet may cause markets to plummet or diplomatic relations to sour," Hermes' Lode said.

Meanwhile, not everyone thinks that this rally will last. Billionaire investor George Soros called Trump a would-be dictator and said Trump will fail

"I personally am convinced that he is going to fail," Soros told Bloomberg during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Failure will come "not because of people like me who would like him to fail, but because his ideas that guide him are inherently self-contradictory and the contradictions are already embodied by his advisors."

Soros also warned that markets will reverse once Trump takes office.


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