In the deal, Invitation Homes is in a first-loss position for the first 5 percent of any losses. After that, Fannie Mae and Wells Fargo are in a risk-sharing partnership. The homes are all in geographically diverse areas, which sources say mitigates the risk, but the rental market does fluctuate, and rents are particularly high now, as more rental stock comes on line. In the IPO filing, the company noted that it would continue to buy more homes to turn around as rentals.
Some have already voiced concern that the deal puts taxpayers on the hook yet again, should the rental market end up in a "bubble." Rental demand is high and rents are high currently, but homebuying demand is also strong and home sales have been rising steadily. There is still very short supply of listings, which favors the rental market now, but that will not always be the case. This could also bring more investors into the rental fold, making financing easier, and potentially lowering rents.
"Blackstone is a market-leader when it comes to securitization innovation. Other corporate landlords will soon jump on this bandwagon, and demand for rental properties will rise," wrote Andrew Roalstad, senior analyst at TIS Group.
"We predict the increase in these type of government-guaranteed securities will grow exponentially in the coming four years, and the impact on the rental property market will be extraordinary," added Roalstad. "We suspect these are the types of changes that the market is pricing in with its 'Trump Rally.' Shifting corporate risk to taxpayers has been a profitable business over the past few decades, and throughout history. We expect we will see more of this shift in the coming years."