Raoul Pal, who once called a dollar surge, now expects another big one

The U.S. dollar is set to see big gains under President Donald Trump, according to one macro strategist who says Trump's protectionist proposals will push the Dollar Index higher—much higher.

Trump is expected to push for tax cuts and more infrastructure spending, a policy mix that economists say is bullish for growth and could light a fire under the greenback.

According to Raoul Pal, founder of The Global Macro Investor financial publication, the stage is being set for a big dollar rally—even as Trump takes protectionist measures that may curb trade flows.

"Generally speaking, Trump policies are incredibly dollar bullish," Pal told CNBC's "Trading Nation" recently.

"Trade protectionist policies are bullish [for the dollar]; the dollar has been correcting for the first month or so of this year. So there's a reasonable chance, I think, that the dollar goes higher," he added.

The dollar will continue to appreciate this year, rising another 25 percent against a basket of major currencies, Pal predicted.

Dollar printing
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This isn't the first time Pal has predicted a rally in the dollar. He correctly called for upside in the greenback in late 2014; the dollar has risen 16 percent since November 2014.

Trump has taken steps to limit free trade. His administration reportedly plans to "renegotiate" the North American Free Trade Agreement, and has removed the U.S. from the yet-to-be-implemented Trans-Pacific Partnership.

An option of heavily taxing imports from Mexico, as part of an effort to construct a border wall, has also been floated.

Meanwhile, Trump complained to the Wall Street Journal about the dollar earlier this month: "Our companies can't compete with [Chinese companies] now because our currency is too strong. And it's killing us."

Pal noted that while Trump doesn't want the dollar going much higher, "you can't have your cake and eat it," referring to Trump's proposed policies that will likely drive the dollar higher.

"It might mess around a bit, should rally for a bit for the next week or so, it might pull back again, but overall, for the rest of this year, I think the dollar goes much higher," Pal said.

"Unbelievably, I think it goes much further," he said, likening current activity to two historical dollar bull markets, in the early 1980s and the late 1990s.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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