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Trump’s economic policy makes perfect sense: SocGen’s Edwards

President Donald Trump meets with leaders of the pharmaceutical industry in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, on January 31, 2017.
Nicholas Kamm | AFP | Getty Images
President Donald Trump meets with leaders of the pharmaceutical industry in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, on January 31, 2017.

As the early days of the Donald Trump administration draw global opprobrium, Societe Generale's famously bearish strategist Albert Edwards is offering unlikely support.

"A lot of what he says on the economic front makes perfect sense to me." Edwards claimed in his latest note published Thursday.

Edwards said the new administration might be a "neo-liberal nightmare" but when the controversial topic of immigration was removed, there was clarity in Trump's thinking.

"We have long written on these pages that Germany is one of the biggest currency manipulators in the world. Germany aggressively refutes any criticism, let alone does anything about it (unlike China)," penned Edwards.

Trump's team has attacked Germany for using the "grossly undervalued" euro to gain unfair trade advantages with the U.S. as well as trading partners within the European Union.

The comments, published Tuesday, sent the euro to an eight-week high against the dollar.

Edwards wrote that unless Germany changes its current position it "will have huge implications for both financial markets and the sustainability of the euro zone."

He said while the U.S. Treasury and the European Commission appeared unwilling to take on Berlin, it looked like the Trump administration would act assertively.


President Donald Trump speaks on the phone with Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel in the Oval Office of the White House, January 28, 2017 in Washington, DC.
Getty Images
President Donald Trump speaks on the phone with Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel in the Oval Office of the White House, January 28, 2017 in Washington, DC.

Edwards, a self-described socialist, also said Trump's plan to strip back regulation affecting U.S. corporates "rings true".

"US corporate competitiveness is poor and deteriorating. The World Bank, for example, ranks the US a derisory 51st on how easy it is to start a business," he wrote.

"The only things where the US excels are the ability of companies to get credit and resolving insolvency. So US companies excel at leveraging up and going bust - great!"

Edwards described America as a low tax and spend nation that has strangled its corporate sector.

He said small business, traditionally the growth engine for jobs, is particularly burdened by regulation and concluded "There is much work indeed for The Donald."

While Edwards' bearish thoughts and predictions are widely read, they do not always come true.

In September 2012, he announced the U.S. was in recession and Wall Street would soon react, and warned of an "ultimate" death cross for the S&P 500—where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day trend line. Instead the S&P 500 continued to rally.

In November 2013 and in March 2014 he also released notes that predicted imminent U.S recessions and spoke of declining U.S. profits.

Matt Clinch contributed to this report.