A presidential election win for far-right anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen in France would cause turmoil in the country's corporate sector as firms brace for the prospect of an exit from the European Union, according to analysts from Citi.
"A Le Pen presidency with an (Front National) majority in the house would see a sharp increase in uncertainty, trigger a probable freeze in capex (capital expenditure) and hiring plans," political analysts at the bank, including Tina Fordham, said in a new note on Friday.
The bank says there's a 20 percent chance that Le Pen wins on May 7 and is not its base case scenario. However, the prediction is not too far away from similar predictions it gave President Donald Trump ahead of the U.S. elections. Citi did give Trump a 30 percent chance of winning before last November, but these figures fluctuated as the race tightened.