With investors eager for policy details, the chances are 3-2 that the market reacts negatively to President Donald Trump's address to Congress, Art Cashin said on Tuesday.
"To get a positive reaction, you need the president to say just the right things, to give enough detail, hope and timing that the market picks up on it," Cashin told CNBC's "Squawk Alley."
But promising rhetoric from the president alone can't garner the best possible reaction, said Cashin, the UBS director of floor operations at the NYSE.
"Then you need Congress, both the Democrats and Republicans, to sound like they might be able to work along with it and get it passed," he continued. "Now, if either of those don't happen, that would raise the possibility of a logical, negative reaction from the market."
However, certain stocks are still likely to rise from Trump's speech, particularly what Cashin called "the theoretical no-brainers — the defense stocks and things like that, that even if he doesn't give detail are logically going to benefit."
On Monday, Trump issued his first budget proposal, which aims to add $54 billion to the United States' defense budget.