The consensus on Wall Street is that euroskeptic Marine Le Pen will not be the next president of France. But not everybody is 100 percent committed to that outlook.
One strategist at Goldman Sachs says the market is too complacent about the coming election in the eurozone's second-biggest economy, telling clients in an email that "while the base case is that she won't, it is at best naive, at worst negligent to assume she can't."
Bobby Vedral, global head of Goldman's MarketStrats group, sent the note to clients this week with an analysis showing how it's possible for the populist Le Pen to garner more than 50 percent of the vote in the expected second round of the election. (If no one wins more than half the vote in the first round on April 23, then the top two vote-getters face off in a May 7 runoff.)