Quietly, stocks have been in a correction for months, says technical analyst

Stocks may be slipping, but investors shouldn't ditch their holdings just yet, according to a new report from Fundstrat Global Advisors technical strategist Robert Sluymer.

That's because, according to Sluymer, they've been falling for three months already.

"I think the really key point here is that most stocks have been correcting since the middle of December. If you think about where the yield curve peaked, where the breakevens [peaked], where oil [peaked], where the relative performance of the Russell 2000 peaked, that was already three months ago," Sluymer said Monday in an interview on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

After its worst week of the year, the S&P 500 in Monday trading logged its seventh negative session in eight, falling as low as 2,322.49 as it dipped below its 50-day moving average for the first time since Nov. 9. Sluymer sees the market pulling back to its 100-day moving average, around the 2,275 mark. And when it comes to the "worst-case scenario," he sees more downside, around the 200-day moving average (implying more than 5 percent of downside from current levels).

"But I don't think it's reason enough to get negative long term. I think what's happening is you're setting up for some very good buying opportunities as you move into the second quarter," he said.

Indeed, heading into a heavier period of earnings, Sluymer said much of equities' overbought condition developed going into the end of the year will be "unwound," but will present a buying opportunity, he said.

What's more is the so-called "reflation trade" many investors saw as kicking off in November actually began in the beginning of 2016, according to Sluymer.

"So those themes continue, and they're already correcting. So, again, I think as we move back into earnings season, I think there's going to be a much better opportunity to be looking at some stocks, and that's only a few weeks away," he said.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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