Several factors are conspiring to keep a lid on oil — and could even send prices sharply lower, analyst John Kilduff told CNBC on Monday.
A recent rally — nearly 5.5 percent for West Texas Intermediate crude — has U.S. shale producers coming back online, said Kilduff, a founding partner of energy and metals specialist Again Capital. WTI, above $50 per barrel in early trading Monday, could turn south again to the low $40s later this year, he warned.
Kilduff wonders whether more American supply may test the resolve of Saudi Arabia's commitment to the output-cut agreement among OPEC and other international players.
"It's kind of a one-two punch," he said. "[In April], we're going to see U.S. domestic production from the shale players rise by 100,000 barrels. That's going to hurt."
"Saudis are not going to want to lose market share," he argued.
Another dynamic is the Trump administration's support of key proposed pipelines that were out of favor under former President Barack Obama, Kilduff said.
Building the Dakota Access and Keystone XL pipelines should make transporting U.S. oil cheaper, which could give margins a boost as American crude competes on the world market, he added.