Even a strong jobs report wouldn't make macro strategist and trader Boris Schlossberg bullish on stocks. But one thing would: a big improvement in wages.
"There's only one thing that could turn me to the positive: If the number on Friday shows a really strong growth in wages — which I doubt is really going to happen," Schlossberg, of BK Asset Management, said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."
Wages are "much more important" than the overall growth in nonfarm payrolls, Schlossberg said.
"Across the whole Western world, the economies are doing OK, but we're just not seeing that translate into more income for individual people. And that's why final demand is very tepid," he explained. Since wages are weighing down consumer demand and thus earnings, "until you see greater growth in income, it's very hard to be super-bullish stocks here."
In the prior employment report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 235,000 in February, but that average hourly earnings rose by just 6 cents, to $26.09. That followed a rise of just 5 cents in January.
When it comes to Friday's employment report, economists expect to see a growth of 180,000 jobs to be attended by a monthly increase of just 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings, according to FactSet.
To be sure, some market participants say that the most likely direction for stocks remains higher.
"I think the jobs number will matter for about 15 or 20 minutes — and then once the market opens, the buying will begin," said Dennis Davitt, portfolio manager at Harvest Volatility Management. "I think the market is fundamentally underweight equities still," and investors "have cash to put to work."
While Davitt thinks that earnings will ultimately be the bullish driver of the next market move, he said Wednesday on "Trading Nation" that "a great unemployment number could certainly kick-start it."
