The theory here is that an Obamacare explosion would reveal massive problems in the law Democrats passed, and voters would blame the minority party for the failure.
The data, however, does not agree with Trump. A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll finds that most voters (61 percent) say it would be Trump and the Republicans' fault if Obamacare stopped working.
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"People think that the current government is the government in charge, and they own it," says Kaiser Family Foundation president Drew Altman.
It's kind of like the Pottery Barn rule: You break it, you buy it. And this makes sense when you step back and think of how nutty Trump's theory is here. There is no historical example of a political party riding to electoral victory on the back of a poorly run entitlement program. Of course voters will blame the people in charge when something goes wrong with their health insurance.
Matt Yglesias put this especially well during a recent episode of The Weeds, the podcast we co-host.
'"You can go through history books and there is no version of, 'And the president did this thing that he knew would make people's lives worse not just because it was worth the cost but because he saw partisan political advantage in making people suffer willfully,'" Matt says. "It's ridiculous."
KFF also provided me with a more in-depth breakdown of how Republicans feel about this particular issue — would they also blame Trump if Obamacare were to go astray?
The numbers there are a bit different: 56 percent of Republicans would say Democrats are responsible for any problems going forward, while 34 percent would blame Republicans (the rest either said they didn't know or refused to answer the question).
"That is a majority of the GOP who still view it as the responsibility of Democrats, but it is a small minority," Altman says. "In the world of ACA polling, that is not a high number. Usually Obamacare disapproval is in the 70s or 80s among Republicans."
Among independents, meanwhile, many are ready to blame Republicans for any future Obamacare woes. Sixty-five percent in the KFF poll said they thought the party would be responsible for problems moving forward, compared with 30 percent who saw Democrats as the culprits.