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Kensho Stats

This is the No. 1 trade following a bad jobs report, history shows

Workers assemble the roof for a semi trailer at the Wabash National Corp. manufacturing facility in Lafayette, Indiana.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Workers assemble the roof for a semi trailer at the Wabash National Corp. manufacturing facility in Lafayette, Indiana.

Gold should top the stock market in the next week of trading after the March jobs report badly missed expectations, if history is any guide.

The S&P 500 may likely decline, according to a CNBC analysis using historic data.

The U.S. added only 98,000 jobs in March vs. the 180,000 consensus estimate from economists. Using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, we found out what happened to the S&P 500, gold and Treasurys in the wake of a jobs report miss of a similar magnitude (0.7 standard deviation miss). Below is their median return and percentage time positive during that week following 18 occurrences in the last decade, according to Kensho.

And here are the three top-performing S&P 500 sectors by median return:

The materials sector is likely boosted by gold stocks. Traders will likely snatch up technology and health care shares for their steady growth in the face of a sluggish overall economy.

Disclosure: CNBC's parent NBCUniversal is a minority investor in Kensho.