This is the No. 1 trade following a bad jobs report, history shows

Key Points
  • The jobs report missed expectations by a similar magnitude as Friday (0.7 standard deviation) 18 times in the last decade, according to hedge fund analytics tool Kensho.
  • Gold gains 1.47 percent in week after such a miss, Kensho data show.
  • Stocks with steady earnings stream outperform the market.
Workers assemble the roof for a semi trailer at the Wabash National Corp. manufacturing facility in Lafayette, Indiana.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Gold should top the stock market in the next week of trading after the March jobs report badly missed expectations, if history is any guide.

The may likely decline, according to a CNBC analysis using historic data.

The U.S. added only 98,000 jobs in March vs. the 180,000 consensus estimate from economists. Using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, we found out what happened to the S&P 500, gold and Treasurys in the wake of a jobs report miss of a similar magnitude (0.7 standard deviation miss). Below is their median return and percentage time positive during that week following 18 occurrences in the last decade, according to Kensho.