The time has come to redefine the Trump trade.
While businesses are strong and the economy is doing well, Jim Cramer found that Trump trades have evolved drastically since they came to fruition after November's election.
"These days, they're more likely to hurt the bull than help, even though so many companies are doing well," the "Mad Money" host said.
Cramer began with Tuesday's example, straight from the president's morning tweet:
"The Trump trade? Buy Gold! Buy Randgold! Buy bullion! Stow it in Switzerland! Hard assets like gold retain their value in times of geopolitical turmoil," Cramer said.
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Another approaching Trump trade may also seem unexpected to investors: the April 28 deadline for Congress to raise the debt ceiling.
Cramer recalled Congress's 2011 fight over the debt ceiling that tanked the Dow and revealed just how much the Republicans despised the Democrats. Now, with Republicans at odds with other Republicans and the Democrats, Cramer wonders if Democrats will step up to the plate.
"That could be another Trump trade, one that causes the averages to pull back as we get closer to the ceiling," Cramer said. "Who would've thought that it might be worth buying puts on the market as we get close to that date? I think it might be."
White House CEO meetings could also become a point of volatility, since the CEOs that President Donald Trump invites become more likely to push for more hiring and job creation at their companies.
"To me, that's starting to feel less like a promise and more like warning, a warning to CEOs not to do any deals that could cause layoffs," Cramer said. "So let's be careful if any company that's merging with another has its CEO invited to the White House, because that might take the synergies off the table."
"Maybe a Trump trade could be to buy some puts on Time Warner? Why not? Even if it does go through, it will be hard to get the synergies given all the scrutiny this one's under. That will obviously affect AT&T. Maybe buy some puts on that," the "Mad Money" host suggested.
The border-tax issue, another well-known point of congressional tension, puts discount retailers and those with a lot of debt at risk, even though Cramer doubts it will pass, another opportunity to buy out of the money put options on chains like JC Penney or Dollar General.
"The problem is that as much as Wall Street likes Trump's pro-business policies, their potential is already baked into the stock market. That was that great first quarter," Cramer said.
But Trump tweet risk and other unexpected political negatives are not baked in, creating an opening for significant downside — and the new Trump trades will reflect that.
"At this pace, we've got the direction all wrong. The Trump trade involves taking down a lot of put options and buying a lot of gold," Cramer said. "However, until the president's family convinces him to stop using Twitter, you might want to get some protection in the stock market even, again, as so many U.S. companies are doing so well."
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