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Trump has presided over the calmest first 100 days for stocks since at least Kennedy

  • The S&P 500 posted a daily move of more than 1 point only three times in Trump's first 100 days.
  • For President Obama's first 100 days, the market swung more than a point on 47 out of the first 71 trading days.
  • The S&P 500 is up 5 percent since the inauguration in a relatively smooth ride.

One of our arguably most bombastic presidents ever has resulted in one of the calmest stock markets in history.

Since President Donald Trump has assumed office, we've seen dozens of executive orders, some failed attempts at sweeping legislation, many early morning tweets and yet surprisingly little stock-market volatility.

The S&P 500 index posted a daily move of more than 1 point only three times in Trump's first 100 days, which is far below average. For President Obama's first 100 days, the market swung more than a point 47 out of the first 71 trading days. For George W. Bush's, that figure was 35.

For the last two presidents, major events sparked periods of high volatility during their first terms. But even for presidencies without immediate national emergencies, the first 100 days are typically a period of rapid change, and the market reacts with big swings in either direction. But for Trump, daily returns have generally been very close to zero.

The S&P 500 is up a healthy 5 percent since the inauguration. In President Obama's first 100 days, the S&P 500 dropped over 15 percent, then recovered and finished the period up 8 percent. That was during the financial crisis and the markets were doing all kinds of ups and downs, but the market was just as topsy-turvy during President George W. Bush's first 100 days.

While President Trump's sometimes volatile actions have lead to poor poll numbers and bipartisan division on Main Street, his promises for lower taxes and deregulation have Wall Street enjoying quite a smooth ride.

On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn outlined Trump's tax plans for both individuals and corporations. Pegged as "maybe the biggest tax cut" in history, the plan — if enacted — would lower companies' tax burden from 35 percent to 15 percent.

One would think Trump's foreign policy missteps and the failure of the House GOP to bring the American Healthcare Act to a vote in late March would have led to some more trading swings. But it hasn't.

It turns out that the first 100 days could be used as an indicator for the rest of a president's term, at least in terms of stock-market movement. The trend shows that the more upward momentum in the market during the first 100 days of an administration, the higher it's climbed by the time the term ends.

But it's not a perfect correlation: The S&P 500 climbed almost 80 percent during President Bill Clinton's first term, after going up less than 2 percent in his first 100 days. Sometimes outside factors throw off the trend. President Gerald R. Ford's first 100 days after President Richard M. Nixon resigned saw an 11-percent drop in the market, which recovered for a 29-percent gain four years later.

The market has advanced about five percent since Trump's inauguration, which puts him in the upper half of recent presidents for the first 100 days. If history is anything to go on, the market could continue to see moderate growth over the next few years.