Business News

CCTV Script 05/05/17


This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on May 5, Friday.

Welcome to CNBC Business Daily, I'm Qian Chen.

For the French election, the Wednesday night's debate marked the last time the two candidates faced each other.

And the polling after the TV debate somewhat calmed the market, as Ifop-Fiducial's polling released on Thursday showed Macron beating Le Pen by 61% to 39%.

French stocks hit a nine-year high on Thursday morning as investors grow confident that Emmanuel Macron will become the next president of France.

But market analysts believe that the CAC 40 has further to go if the centrist and independent candidate wins Sunday's vote.

A Macron victory is the most "market-friendly" scenario, given his pro-European stance, and traders suggest that banking stocks are likely to outperform following a confirmation of Macron's victory.

The sector rallied after the results of the first round with Societe Generale rising 10 percent.

While Credit Agricole also traded up as much as 11 percent on that day.

A Macron win would also open the door to a change in tone at the European Central Bank level.

If Macron wins against the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, the integrity of the euro zone should be intact. In opposition to Le Pen's policy proposals, Macron wants to strengthen the euro area, which could boost claims that it is time for the ECB to tighten.

One analyst told CNBC that if Macron wins, the ECB is likely to change its forward guidance at its June meeting. He said that the ECB could open the door to raising rates before the end of its quantitative easing program.

Therefore, there might be a relief rally on Monday, with banking stocks likely to jump. However, as a Macron win has already been priced in, the analyst said he would not be surprised if everything ends the day in red.

Now, the main risk for the market, including selloff of euro and stocks, is a surprise win of Le Pen. But if the black-swan event doesn't happen, then markets will go ahead to move their focus to parliamentary elections in June as well as Macron's economic policies per se.

[FREDRIK ERIXON, European Centre for International Political Economy, Director] "I think it comes down to in his view that France needs to spur economy. It needs to bring down its high unemployment, which exceeds 10% of the workforce, perhaps to be an underlying strength of the economy with more quality growth which makes french economy more confident."

We will have to wait and see the final result this Sunday.

CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.