Global demand for electric vehicles will surge during the next few decades, but gasoline is probably not going away soon, said a new research note from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.
Jonas said in a note Tuesday that electric vehicles will make up 50 percent to 60 percent of all light vehicles sold around the world by 2040. But he does not expect that rise to coincide with a precipitous decline in global demand for gasoline, contrary to more bearish views.
That's because while electric car sales will grow, the impact from developments in the areas of shared and autonomous driving will reduce the cost of transportation around the world at a much faster pace. This will lead to an explosion of driving around the world that will continue to keep internal combustion engines relevant for the next two decades.
Specifically, Jonas envisions a model where private car ownership declines, while "