Top strategist sees screaming 'buy' signal for stocks, here's the chart

  • Canaccord Genuity's Tony Dwyer is using just one chart to show the bears that U.S. stocks are moving higher.
  • Dwyer calls the market a "terrific buy."

Canaccord Genuity's Tony Dwyer is using just one chart to show the bears that stocks are moving higher.

"There's this narrative out there that the yield curve flattening is telling you that the economy is closer to recession and the stock market is in trouble. History shows the opposite is true," the firm's chief market strategist said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

Dwyer explains in his latest note that when the U.S. Treasury yield curve as measured by the six month/10-year spread sees a drop of 100 basis points, there has "historically been at least two years until a bull market peak driven by recession."

He argues that this historical trend should be enough to persuade investors to buy any correction, rather than try to trade ahead of it.

Dwyer said the stock market a "terrific buy." He has a 2,470 year-end price target on the S&P 500, just 1 percent away from current levels. His 2018 year-end price target of 2,720 is an 11 percent jump.

His comments come just two days after Gluskin Sheff chief economist and strategist David Rosenberg told "Trading Nation" that the booming stock market is in "denial."

"While I respect David quite a bit, I'm very hesitant to say that the bond market is 'telling me something,'" said Dwyer, who points out that when yields reached 2.62 percent after the election, investors were worried the "economy was running too hot." That scenario never materialized, and yields have fallen since then.

Even though Dwyer notes the intermediate-term is looking solid, he predicts that some choppy market action could be just weeks away.

"You can correct very easily. We frankly think we're going to get one very near term. But for a significant and sustainable drop, you really have to have a recession," he said. "We are so not close to a recession."


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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