2017 has not been kind to retailers, and if one of the Trump administration's budget cuts takes hold, there will be more pain to come.
The current Trump administration budget calls for a $191 billion cut to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — commonly referred to as food stamps — between 2018 and 2028.
The Congressional Budget Office said the average food stamp benefit is $252 per month, the lowest level in five years as several rounds of cuts began in 2013. If the Trump administration's SNAP budget proposal passes, the monthly amount will fall by 31 percent to an average $173 a month.
CNBC has exclusive estimates to quantify just which retailers will take the biggest hit if food stamp benefits are cut.
Retail consultancy AlixPartners estimated retail collectively stands to lose $70.7 billion over the decade if the proposed cuts take place.
"For about every dollar of benefit reduction or spending, there's about a 37-cent loss in grocery sales," said Ted Stenger, managing director at AlixPartners.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the government agency that runs the food stamp program, supermarkets and superstores received 81 percent of the SNAP benefits in 2016, even though that subsector only represents 14 percent of the total companies authorized to accept food stamps.
But that means the group is poised to be the hardest hit. AlixPartners estimated the size of the impact would be about $57.5 billion at supermarkets and superstores over the next 10 years if the budget item passes as proposed.
No one retailer redeems more food stamp benefits than Wal-Mart. The discount retailer makes up the largest share of superstore redemptions. In 2013, Wal-Mart disclosed it gets an estimated 18 percent, but it hasn't given any updated figures. Using that information as a part of its equation, the retail consultancy estimates Walmart would take a $12.7 billion hit to U.S. sales over the next decade.
Target sees the second-largest food stamp redemption in the superstore and supercenter category, with an estimated $4.8 billion to $5.3 billion sales drag.
"Target is committed to supporting the communities we serve by accepting SNAP benefits that provide nutritional assistance to those in need. We are watching the budget process and proposals around SNAP funding, knowing it could have an effect on our guests and their families," Target said in a statement. "Overall, we anticipate the impact of this proposal on Target's business to be small and significantly lower than industry reports. We'll continue to monitor the budget process closely moving forward."
Low-priced grocery store chain Aldi would see the third-largest impact, estimated to fall between $4.4 billion and $4.9 billion.