The U.S. dollar index is hovering near its lowest level in more than a year, and according to one strategist we may have just witnessed a bottom.
Paul Ciana, chief global technical strategist at Bank of America, says there are two charts of the dollar that show how grossly oversold it is.
On CNBC's "Futures Now" Tuesday, Ciana looked at a weekly chart of the U.S. dollar index and noted that its latest declines actually haven't had too much brawn behind them. The strategist is looking at the relative strength index, or RSI, of the U.S. dollar, which tracks the momentum of the dollar's moves. The RSI has reached its lowest level in years, according to Ciana's chart, meaning that the latest drop in the dollar didn't have as much momentum to the downside. This leads the strategist to believe that "it could be wise to think about a little bit of a dollar long."
But in addition to the RSI reading, Ciana also points out that "dollar breadth measures show bearish momentum and oversold conditions" unseen since around 2012.
"As it stands today, there are only two dollar crosses that are above their 200-day moving average," said Ciana. "The magnitude of those downtrends is massive. With that, as of [Monday], 11 of 30 dollar crosses were oversold."
For investors looking to play the dollar to the longside, Ciana advocates a more "seasonal" approach. According to Ciana, seasonal data shows that in the month of August, the U.S. dollar has actually held strong against nine emerging market currencies, especially the Mexican peso. In other words, not only should investors be long the U.S. dollar, but they may also possibly want to short the peso.
The dollar bounced off its 13-month lows on Wednesday, ahead of the Fed's decision.