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This hard-hit commodity could drop another 30 percent: Trader

One of Wall Street's most closely followed commodities watchers says natural gas bulls are about to get stuck.

"The supply curve is on the cusp of really starting to take off in response to a dry gas rig count in the U.S. that's gone from 80 rigs to 189 rigs in the last 12 months," Robert Raymond said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now" when discussing oversupply in the market. "People are underestimating how much associated natural gas is really going to come out of a lot of the 'oil shale wells' as well."

The founder of RCH Energy explained that these factors will continue to spur overproduction in the market. From here, Raymond believes this action will serve as a lead balloon for the price of the commodity.

"We think there's reasonable risk down to the $2.20 to $2.30 range," noted Raymond, who added there's additional risk for nat gas falling to $1.75 before the end of the year.

From current levels, a drop to $1.75 in the next three to six months would represent more than a 30 percent decline in price.

"Ultimately, the issue becomes the associated gas production that's going to come out of places like West Texas and Oklahoma, which is probably enough to satiate the demand curve," warned Raymond.

"If the dry gas guys keep drilling, at some point you're going to have to bid gas prices down to a level to get some of them to stop drilling."

Before this call, Raymond had been waving a red warning flag on natural gas prices. In February he reaffirmed his bearish outlook for nat gas on "Fast Money" noting that "it's hard to get constructive on gas."

Within a week of the call, prices tumbled 10 percent en route to 2017 lows. Now, despite a slight recovery in March, nat gas is down 24 percent year to date.

"In the back half of the year, you're going to see supply grow by a [billion cubic feet of natural gas] per day each month between now and Christmas," Raymond said. "The demand just can't keep up with that."

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