While how much damage Hurricane Irma will cause once it hits land is still very much in doubt, one scenario has emerged that puts the cost at record levels.
Historical models suggest that Irma's price tag could reach $125 billion should a Category 4 Hurricane strike Miami directly, according to a note from Credit Suisse. That would correspond with a 1-in-100-year event as Irma currently is projected to be.
Of course, there are scenarios where that could be considerably worse, or not as bad.
"Some very sizable insured loss events are within the subset of possible projected Irma paths," research analyst Ryan Tunis said. "The odds of [a Category 4 hitting Miami] event are clearly currently much greater than 1 in 100 given the path and size of the storm."
In its current form, Irma is actually a Category 5 storm and is the largest ever to hit the Atlantic outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center warned that the storm is "potentially catastrophic" and most recently was bearing down on the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
What happens from there will determine the fate of Floridians.
"The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week and this weekend from wind, storm surge and rainfall continues to increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida peninsula," the center said. "However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these impacts."