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AMD shares to surge on its cloud computing chip share gains: Analyst

  • Jefferies predicts AMD's share of data center server chip market will rise to 8 percent by year-end 2018 from nearly nothing today.
  • AMD's stock is up nearly 115 percent in the past 12 months through midday Wednesday compared with the S&P 500's 17 percent gain. That performance ranks No. 3 in the entire S&P 500, according to FactSet.
AMD Ryzen chip.
Source: AMD
AMD Ryzen chip.

The stunning stock rally for AMD shares in the past year is just the beginning of a bigger run, according to one Wall Street analyst.

Jefferies is bullish that the chip maker will be able to gain market share from Intel in the cloud computing server chip market.

"We hosted AMD CEO Lisa Su and SVP Ruth Cotter for investor meetings early this week. Management expressed confidence in its server MPU [micro processor unit], EPYC, its ability to reach its target gross margin model (40-44%), and its new desktop MPU products, Ryzen," semiconductor analyst Mark Lipacis wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

AMD's stock is up nearly 115 percent in the past 12 months through midday Wednesday compared with the S&P 500's 17 percent gain. That performance ranks No. 3 in the entire S&P 500, according to FactSet.

Lipacis reiterated his buy rating for AMD stock and his $19 price target, representing 54.5 percent upside from Tuesday's close.

The analyst cited how Microsoft, Baidu and Tencent announced their intentions to use AMD's latest server chips in their cloud computing data centers. He predicts AMD's share of the server processor market will rise to 2 percent by year-end 2017 and 8 percent by year-end 2018 from nearly 0 percent today.

"We believe those share estimates could prove conservative. AMD's share goal in servers is double-digits," he wrote.

AMD management also said the digital currency mining market for its graphics cards will likely be more resilient than in previous cycles.

"Management did not comment on our attempt to quantify AMD's cryptocurrency sales last quarter, but was sympathetic our notion that the cryptocurrency risk is lower than 2014 due to the emergence of a commercial cryptocurrency mining market which appears more stable (and to which it sells crypto-specific GPUs directly)," he wrote.