The Republican effort to repeal Obamacare may be back from the dead, as the party makes one last attempt to get a bill through the Senate before an effective deadline of September 30.
Currently, the GOP still appears to be short of the 50 of 52 Senate votes from their own party they need to succeed. The state of play as of Monday evening is:
- The big four — the toughest votes to get — are still noncommittal.Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and John McCain (R-AZ), who voted down repeal in July, haven't been won over to the newest proposal yet. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has also declared his strong opposition to the new effort. Unless at least two of these senators switch to yes, the GOP bill will fail.
- Several other Republican senators remain undecided too.It's not clear just how many votes this bill is away from passage just yet, because several other GOP senators in addition to the "big four" are saying that they're undecided or that they're still reviewing it. But Senate GOP leaders reportedly expect that these undecided senators will come around and support a bill brought to a floor vote.
More from Vox:
The economy really is broken — but we know how to fix it
The new Obamacare repeal bill is the worst yet for women's health
Zoë Quinn survived Gamergate and death threats. She's not backing down.
The new bill in question was written by Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and it would block-grant Obamacare money for states and cap Medicaid spending. It has not yet been scored by the Congressional Budget Office or been ruled as compliant with the Senate's restrictive budget reconciliation rules. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has not yet confirmed he'll bring the bill to a vote.
But the fast-approaching deadline of September 30 has added extra urgency to this effort. That's the last day on which the Senate can pass Obamacare repeal with only Republican votes via the budget reconciliation process. If that date passes with no action, it would effectively kill the partisan repeal drive for the rest of this Congress. So conservatives are making one last push — since they did fall short by only one vote last time — and liberals are mobilizing to try to stop them.
So here are the key GOP senators to watch, ranked in rough order of most likely to oppose the bill to relatively less likely: