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Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak estimates that Facebook will make $565 million in revenue from the "Watch" tab video in 2018, on video spending of $400 million. About $200 million of the spending would be on producing content Nowak wrote in a note released on Friday.
That implies that each daily user in North American would spend about 20 minutes a day on the "Watch" tab videos. The users would only need to watch about 7 minutes of video for Facebook to break even on its $200 million content investment, Nowak wrote.
According to Nowak's estimates and Neilsen data, users watch 40 minutes per day on YouTube (global average), 125 minutes a day on Netflix (U.S. average) and 260 minutes a day of traditional TV (U.S. average).
Facebook did not immediately respond to a request for comment.