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Morgan Stanley strategist: 'Euphoria' could lift the S&P to 3,000 in 2018

  • Morgan Stanley Chief Stock Strategist Mike Wilson sets a base 2,750 and a top 3,000 target for the S&P in 2018.
  • Without continued earnings growth, stable financial conditions and greater individual investor participation, multiples may start to contract, he warned.

One of Wall Street's biggest bulls says he's not as bullish for the year forward as he was last year – even with tax reform.

For the year ahead, Morgan Stanley Chief Stock Strategist Mike Wilson marked 2,750 as his base case for the S&P. That's pretty bearish, considering his goal for this year was 2,700, and the index closed at 2,629.27 on Wednesday.

"We think earnings are going to top, financial conditions are going to tighten, and at some point later next year, we are going to see a contraction of multiples," Wilson said on CNBC's "Fast Money."

Despite his concerns, Wilson's not concerned about a recession quite yet, even if big tech falls out of favor.

"Until the cyclicals stop working, I'm not worried about a market top," he said. "If we rotate out of tech, the whole index doesn't have to go down."

Wilson's bullish target for 2018 puts the S&P at 3,000. To that end, Wilson said implementing tax reform by 2018 is vital, and a 22 percent corporate tax rate can get it done.

Tax reform can't boost the market alone, Wilson said. The bullish 3,000 target will require a continued earnings growth, stable financial conditions and greater individual investor participation, in addition to tax reform.

"If you get that euphoria, I could see a 3,000 target, as opposed to 2,750," Wilson said.