Bond yields have risen sharply in the past week, sparking fears of trouble in the Treasury market, but one trader sees a buying opportunity.
Treasury yields were modestly lower on Tuesday. On Monday, the 2-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2008, while the 5- and 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2010 and 2014, respectively.
Fueling the bearish sentiment about the bond market, influential investors have issued stark warnings on Treasurys, which are less valuable as yields rise. Still, Bill Baruch with Blue Line Futures says the yield moves higher are overdone. Here are his reasons.
• With the European Central Bank convening in Frankfurt later this week, this is a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news event. In this case, buy the 10-year Treasury.
• Elsewhere in international central bank decisions, the Bank of Japan on Tuesday announced no change to its short-term policy rate.
• Net short positions in the 10-year Treasury have reached record levels, and the note's 14-day relative strength index is historically low.
• As some influential bond investors have issued bearish calls on the market and traders have chased the move, the downside in bond prices appears overdone as net short positions have piled in. It would be prudent to position long in the near term, and look for a rally in the first half of February.
Bottom line: One trader is planning to establish a long position in the 10-year Treasury in the near-term.