Bespoke’s Paul Hickey blames extreme optimism for the stock market and bitcoin's painful sell-off

Investors should view the historic pullback in stocks and bitcoin as a lesson on the dangers of overconfidence, according to market watcher Paul Hickey.

Hickey, co-founder of independent research firm Bespoke Investment Group, cites dangerously high optimism as a chief reason for the market turmoil.

"You could look at the big run-up we've seen in bitcoin, and just highlight that as another example of overall consumer and investor enthusiasm," he said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "In a strong market, people tend to take more risks and move into some riskier assets."

In the months leading up to the stock market's free-fall, Hickey observed more and more investors acting as if they were entitled to uncharacteristic gains. It came as stocks were breaking record after record — until last Friday's tumble.

Hickey contends the markets were ripe for a sell-off, which was sparked by converging factors including worries that rising wages will spur higher interest rates, pension fund re-balancing and short volatility ETFs blowing up.

He doesn't buy the notion that the markets are broken. Hickey, who views the sell-off as a buying opportunity, also blames the plunge on a volatility shock sparked by a long period of calmness.

"It seemed abnormal," he said. "But compared to other periods, we've seen these types of pullbacks and big spikes in volatility before."

As violent as it became, he sees the volatility jump as a short-term challenge.

"It's more of just a reality check for investors," Hickey said. "[They] almost feel like 5 percent monthly gains are a God-given right."

Vote
Vote to see results
Total Votes:

Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.

Videos

Trades to Watch

Trader Bios

About

Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

Read more

Connect