Business News

CCTV Script 12/03/18


— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on March 12, Monday.

Nine years ago, on March 10, 2009, the late CNBC anchor Mark Haines called the bottom of the financial crisis-slide in stocks.

"Haines bottom" -- that's what the market refer to the starting point of the current bull run of the US markets.

Today, unfortunately Mr. Haines has passed away, while the bull market still remains, and may even have more room to grow, according to some optimists.

Just to give you a picture of past bull cycles of the U.S. markets. From 1949 to 1956, 7 years of bull market, the S&P 500 going up by 266 percent; 1972 to 1987, 5 years of bull market led to another surge of 229 percent. Next is the longest bull run in the entire history - 13 years, helping the index to skyrocket by 582 percent. Now here comes to the current bull cycle - since the year of 2009, the S&P has been up by about 305 percent. Now the questions is - how long can it last for this cycle.

Here are some recent good news for the market.

Last Friday, job data showed that the economy added 313,000 jobs in February, crushing expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent, according to a Labor Department. Meanwhile, investors were watching the report closely not only for clues about job growth but also whether wage pressures were continuing to build. Wage growth came in less than expected, rising 0.1 percent for the month and 2.6 percent on an annualized basis. Therefore, the job report also helped to quell inflation fears.

[CHARLES EVANS] "We've had low inflation now for a long time. Inflation is running under our inflation objective.

"I think we really have the ability to be cautious. We've set out inflation objective is symatric, 2%. We haven't been above 2%. You know, we should be averging 2% going forward so we should expect we are gonna be above 2% at some point."

Now, we are also in a period of so-called "Goldilocks Economy". The term originally comes from a British fairy tale "Goldilocks and three bears", but then was used by Wall Street to describe an economy that is either too hot to cause inflation, or too cold that it causes a recession. The term describes an economy that is operating in an optimal state by providing full employment and economic stability, while enjoying a relatively low interest rate.

Economists sometimes disagree on the characteristics of a Goldilocks economy, but it is frequently characterized by a low unemployment rate, increasing asset prices, low interest rates, brisk but steady GDP growth and low inflation.

And of course, markets love the Goldilocks Economy and want it to last as long as possible, or, make the bears come home as late as possible.

So we'll see how much longer this Goldilocks Economy can stay.

Besides, US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are expected to hold talks by May in order to ease nuclear tensions. To some degree, this announcement helped to alleviate geopolitical risks that have been pressuring the market.

But there are other risks going on .

In the wake of Mr. Trump's tariffs declaration Thursday, however, focus has shifted to how would the European Union and Japan, two of the U.S.' biggest economic partners, would respond to these tariffs. Now. both Brussels and Tokyo pressed the U.S. to exempt them from President Donald Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs on Saturday, firing their opening salvos as officials seek to avoid a trade war with the world's biggest economy.

And obviously, this on-going tariff play has cast a shadow over the head of the U.S. market, which is celebrating its 9th year of bull run.

Are we going to celebrate again on the same day next year for the 10th year of bull market? That remains a question mark.

CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.