President Donald Trump appears poised to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal on Tuesday by announcing he'll restore sanctions on Iranian oil exports. But analysts say the impact of those sanctions on the market would not have the same bite they had under Trump's predecessor.
The United States wields considerable power over the global financial system, but if Trump does move to renew sanctions on Iran's oil exports, he will be acting against the will of the international community. Unlike President Barack Obama, he will not be able to count on some major buyers of Iranian crude to close their import terminals, according to several widely followed analysts.
That means U.S. sanctions will likely only remove 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil off the market, compared with the 1 million to 1.5 million barrels the Obama administration curtailed. The world consumes about 100 million barrels a day.
Even then, it will probably be six months or more until the worst of the disruptions occur, opening a window for continued negotiations that could preserve the deal, analysts say.