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Apple, Intel and these other US tech companies have the most at stake in China-US trade fight

  • Apple and Intel are on a list of 16 U.S. companies that made a total $105.5 billion from China last year, or 23 percent of overall revenues, Jefferies analysts said Monday.
  • As a result of U.S. commercial interests, they expect the Trump administration to pursue concessions from Beijing, rather than an outright break in technology-related trade.
  • Shares of optical component makers working directly or indirectly with ZTE rose in Monday morning trading after President Donald Trump unexpectedly said the U.S. would help the Chinese telecom equipment giant get back into business quickly.

U.S. technology companies generate roughly $100 billion to $150 billion in revenues from China annually, Jefferies analysts estimate.

As a result, the Trump administration will likely pursue concessions from Beijing, rather than cut off all tech trade, analysts Edison Lee and Timothy Chau said in a note Monday. " We continue to believe the US will make only highly calculated moves, by factoring in the commercial interest of US tech firms."

Apple and Intel are on a list of 16 U.S. companies that made a total $105.5 billion from China last year, or 23 percent of overall revenues, the analysts said.

Other names include Microsoft and Qualcomm. Including HP, Dell and other companies that don't break out their China revenues brings the total estimate to around $150 billion, the analysts said.

The U.S.-China trade dispute has increasingly focused on technology and intellectual property rights.

In mid-April, the U.S. Commerce Department banned American companies from selling components to Chinese telecom equipment giant ZTE for seven years. The decision was a response to ZTE's violation of U.S. sanctions against Iran and North Korea, to which the Chinese company pleaded guilty last year. Trading in its Hong Kong and Shenzhen-listed shares was halted after the ban, and last week the company said its main business operations have ceased.

However, President Donald Trump unexpectedly said Sunday that he is working with Chinese President Xi Jinping to help ZTE "get back into business, fast."

Shares of optical component makers working directly or indirectly with ZTE rose in Monday morning trading:

  • Acacia Communications received 30 percent of 2017 total revenue from the Chinese telecom company. Shares closed up 8.7 percent.
  • Oclaro generated 18 percent of fiscal year 2017 revenue from ZTE. Shares closed up 2.9 percent.
  • Lumentum, which has agreed to acquire Oclaro for $1.8 billion, saw its shares rise more than 2 percent.
  • Finisar also counts ZTE as a customer. Its shares gained 1 percent.

All four stocks are on the Jefferies analysts' list.