Elsewhere in the nation's largest city, one of the House's top Democrats faces an unexpectedly strong challenge. Rep. Joe Crowley will try to emerge victorious Tuesday in his blue 14th District, situated in Queens and part of the Bronx. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old education advocate and community organizer, hopes to take down a representative who has served for nearly two decades.
Ocasio-Cortez has run to the left of Crowley. She has promoted proposals such as Medicare for all and a jobs guarantee, as well as her lack of corporate donors. Still, Crowley had more than $1 million on hand in early June, about 10 times more than Ocasio-Cortez.
The challenger has argued that Crowley — a 56-year-old white man — cannot properly connect with the diverse district.
While incumbents are generally favored, a challenger's victory would be a shake-up in both the 11th and 14th Districts. Some such as Trump predict a Grimm victory will make the Staten Island election more competitive in November. A win by Ocasio-Cortez would all but guarantee she would replace Crowley in Congress.
North of New York City, Democrats will choose challengers in two districts expected to be highly competitive in November. Nonpartisan handicappers consider both the 19th and 22nd Districts toss-ups in November.
A crowded field of at least five Democrats vies to take on GOP Rep. John Faso in November in the 19th District, which includes the Catskills and parts of the Hudson Valley. The seat is considered "R+2," according to Cook.
A few leading Democratic contenders have emerged. Lawyer Antonio Delgado has led the money race among Democrats, with more than $750,000 on hand as of early June. Businessman Brian Flynn and Army veteran Pat Ryan each raised more than $1.5 million by early June, but both had less money on hand than Delgado.
In the 22nd District, DCCC-backed education advocate Anthony Brindisi will run unopposed and will take on GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney. The seat, which stretches vertically from Binghamton in the south well into the central part of the state, is an "R+6" area, according to Cook.
Two other GOP-held districts in New York are considered competitive, but not as close as other seats in the state. In the 1st District on the eastern part of Long Island, GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin hopes to comfortably hold off a Democratic challenge. Businessman Perry Gershon has easily raised the most money among Democratic primary candidates, with a boost from his own pockets.
Democrats also aim to take out GOP Rep. John Katko in the 24th District. The central New York seat, which includes Syracuse, has flipped between parties frequently in recent elections.
The DCCC is supporting former prosecutor Juanita Perez Williams in a two-way Democratic primary. She runs against Dana Balter, a former special education teacher and advocate.