Stocks like Netflix are so hot, they've already surpassed Wall Street's 12-month forecasts

Key Points
  • J.P. Morgan Chase kept its rating on Netflix at a bullish overweight, but warned that the stock has surpassed its December 2018 price target more than five months early.
  • "We believe the risk-reward is more balanced heading into the second-quarter print,” J.P Morgan's Doug Anmuth told clients Wednesday.
  • CNBC analyzed which S&P 500 stocks have both rallied more than 20 percent since January and are now more than 10 percent above Wall Street’s consensus target.
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While the rest of the bull market struggles, some popular stocks are roaring higher, blowing past Wall Street analysts' price forecasts for the next 12 months. A handful of names in the S&P 500 are already 20 percent above what analysts believe they'll be worth over the next one year.

Case in point: Netflix shares are 13 percent above the average Wall Street analyst price target thanks to a gain of 116 percent since January.

The same can be said for both social media site Twitter's stock as well as chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices's, 24 percent and 10.9 percent above consensus targets on Wall Street respectively, per FactSet data. And both stocks loved by traders right now.

The rapid gains in those stocks dwarf that of the broader market, which has labored under a resurgence of volatility and fluctuating trade war fears. The S&P 500 is up only 3.79 percent so far this year and 14.4 percent over the last 12 months.

The growing trend appeared to give J.P. Morgan Chase's Doug Anmuth pause, with the analyst writing Wednesday that the rapid appreciation in the price of Netflix shares make the online video steamer less attractive from a valuation vantage.

While he kept his rating at a bullish overweight, he warned that the stock has surpassed his December 2018 price target more than five months early.

“Netflix shares have traded through our $385 price target, and we continue to like the story and believe there is upside to our longer-term numbers, but we believe the risk-reward is more balanced heading into the second-quarter print,” Anmuth told clients Wednesday.

His current forecast — bumped up from $328 back in April — came when shares of the online video streamer hovered at $336, implying 14 percent upside at the time. The stock has since soared past that threshold, and closed Tuesday above $415; Anmuth’s target now implies more than 7 percent downside.

Netflix, which is set to report its latest financial numbers on Monday, is expected to add about 7 million subscribers, J.P. Morgan said, higher than the 6.2 million company management guided and the 6.27 million Amnuth predicts.

While tech stocks have the led market over the past year, the disparity between analyst forecasts and recent performance isn't isolated to the sector.

Athletic wear company Under Armour, for example, is up more than 50 percent so far this year at around $22.40, well above the average analyst price target of $16.91. The stock is bouncing off a 52-week low hit in November, when shares of Under Armour closed at $11.61.