Netflix shares fall after Deutsche Bank warns streaming giant may miss second-quarter subscriber expectations

  • Deutsche Bank tells its clients Netflix shares may fall next week, predicting the company could miss Wall Street’s second-quarter subscriber expectations.
  • Netflix shares are the second best-performing member of the S&P 500 this year. It's up 115 percent year to date through Thursday versus the market’s 5 percent return.
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings delivers a keynote address at CES 2016 at The Venetian Las Vegas on January 6, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
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Netflix CEO Reed Hastings delivers a keynote address at CES 2016 at The Venetian Las Vegas on January 6, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Netflix’s stunning rally so far this year may be due for a breather, according to Deutsche Bank.

The firm told its clients Thursday the internet video streaming giant could miss Wall Street’s second-quarter subscriber expectations next week.

Netflix shares are the second best-performing member of the S&P 500 this year. It's up 115 percent year to date through Thursday versus the market’s 5 percent return.

“We see limited upside and even some downside to 2Q guidance/consensus,” analyst Bryan Kraft said in the report Thursday. “We don't see 2Q earnings as a positive catalyst for the stock; in fact, we see some near term downside risk.”

The company's stock fell more than 4 percent Friday.

The analyst predicts Netflix’s second-quarter global net subscriber additions will be within a range of 1 million below to 500,000 above the Wall Street consensus. He estimates US net member additions will either match analyst’s expectations or miss by up to 500,000 subscribers for the same quarter.

Kraft said with Netflix shares up so dramatically this year there is potential for weak performance next week.

“The stock has doubled this year, and added another $50B of market capitalization over the past quarter. Without meaningful positive estimate revisions, or 3Q subscriber guidance coming in ahead of expectations, it seems unlikely that the stock will move higher next week," he said. “The stock might see a pull back in the short term (i.e. next week), but we see significant long term, multiyear value creation ahead.”

As a result, Kraft reiterated his buy rating and $360 price target for Netflix shares. The stock closed at $413.50 Thursday.

Netflix declined to comment. The company is slated to report its second-quarter earnings results Monday.

On Wednesday UBS lowered its rating to neutral from buy for Netflix shares, citing the internet company’s high valuation.