Amazon's Prime Day is likely to drive company’s sales and share price higher

  • Cowen tells its clients Amazon's Prime Day is a key benefit for the Prime subscriber base, leading to higher sales and more subscriber sign-ups.
  • Using Kensho, a quantitative tool used by hedge funds, CNBC found Amazon rose 1.9 percent on average during Prime Day week in the last three instances. The Amazon return approximately doubled the S&P 500’s performance in the same time periods.
An employee stacks items to be shipped at the Amazon.com fulfillment center in Phoenix, Arizona.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
An employee stacks items to be shipped at the Amazon.com fulfillment center in Phoenix, Arizona.

Amazon’s annual shopping holiday is a significant positive driver for the company’s e-commerce leadership and even its stock price.

Cowen told its clients that the company’s Prime Day is a key benefit for its Prime subscriber base. Only Amazon Prime members can take advantage of Prime Day discounts, which starts Monday at 3 p.m. EDT this year.

“Amazon Prime Day returns for the 4th time … and is likely to be the biggest one ever,” analyst John Blackledge said in a note to clients Monday. "Beyond adding further revenue/GMV, Prime Day is a key driver of Prime subs, which we view as the core driver of LT eCommerce growth.”

Amazon raised the price of its annual Prime plan to $119 from $99 in May.

Blackledge reiterated his outperform rating and raised his price target to $2,100 from $2,000 for Amazon shares, representing 16 percent upside to Friday’s close.

The analyst said the Prime Day promotions will increase the company's Echo device sales and Prime subscriber base. He noted Prime households buy on average about 3.5 times per month versus two times for the regular Amazon consumer, according to Cowen's survey.

Another Wall Street analyst explained the ecosystem surrounding Prime is what makes Amazon special.

“Every year, Amazon’s Kindle devices are heavily promoted, and this year, we expect more of the same, augmented by similar promotions on Alexa devices,” Moody’s analyst Charles O’Shea said in a note to clients Monday. ”This is where we believe the true value of Prime lies – the kind of content it offers members. Anyone can offer cutthroat shipping promotions if they have the stomach (and shareholders!) willing to absorb the costs, but excluding the likes of Apple, no one in retail can match the content ecosystem of Prime.”

Not only does Prime Day help the company’s sales, it is also benefits Amazon’s stock price.

Using Kensho, a quantitative tool used by hedge funds, CNBC found Amazon rose 1.9 percent on average during Prime Day week in the last three instances. The Amazon return approximately doubled the S&P 500’s performance in the same time periods.

Amazon shares rose 0.6 percent to a record on Monday.