President Donald Trump will change course on his policy of trade tariffs if it causes the U.S. stock market to suddenly lose value, the asset management division at UBS predicts in new research report.
"We have a strong conviction that the (Trump) administration's strategy will be reflexive to economic and market impact," Erin Browne, head of asset allocation at UBS Asset Management, said in the report.
"Should U.S. equities experience a meaningful drawdown, we expect the Trump administration to dial back pressure on trade to avoid undermining its ultimate priority, the strength of the U.S. economy," she said.
Trump has often made public statements correlating record highs in the stock market with the health of the U.S. economy. According to the Swiss bank, Trump's top priority is the performance of the country's economy and thus, if the stock market takes a dives due to his policies, he would soon reconsider imposing new tariffs and trade barriers.
In terms of what a "meaningful drawdown" would look like, UBS explained that it would be any stock market fall over 10 percent within a short-term time horizon.