Nvidia shares have had an unusually good year, rising 32 percent versus an 8 percent gain in the semi-tracking SMH ETF. It's the second-best performing chip stock in the S&P 500 this year, behind AMD.
Ahead of the Nvidia quarterly earnings on Thursday afternoon, options traders are predicting some unusual behavior.
Stacey Gilbert, head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday what to expect. Here's what she said.
· Nvidia is a stock that's had a magnificent run over the last two years, up over 300 percent versus the SMH's gain of about 64 percent. The stock is far outpacing the broader market, too; the S&P is only up 30 percent in the period.
· Heading into earnings, the market is suggesting relatively little risk this quarter. The implied stock move is around 6 percent in either direction. This is an unusual sign.
· Such a move is a touch lower than the stock's performance during the last eight quarters, which is closer to 9 percent on earnings. It's more in line with what we've seen over the last four quarters, which is around 5 percent.
· Notably, the actual volatility being priced in is one of the lower levels the options market has seen in the last two years.
Wall Street analysts are expecting average earnings of $1.66 per share, according to FactSet estimates. The stock closed modestly higher on Monday, at $256.12 per share.
Bottom line: Nvidia is far outpacing the rest of the semiconductor space this year, and the options market is pricing in little risk for the stock ahead of earnings.
