Democrats have reason for optimism heading into November's midterms, according to one widely followed election forecaster.
The party has about a 70 percent chance of flipping enough Republican-held House seats to take a majority in the chamber, according to models from FiveThirtyEight, the analytics site run by data guru Nate Silver. The outlet's forecasts project an average Democratic gain of at least 32 seats, comfortably above the 23 districts the party needs to gain to win a majority.
The figures reflect a feeling among most election analysts that Democrats are at least slight favorites to win back the House. The party not in the White House generally performs well in midterm years. Democrats have tried to leverage opposition to health care and tax policies pushed by President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans into electoral success.
Democrats have generally led Republicans in polls measuring which party voters prefer to hold a majority in Congress. An average of polls measured by Real Clear Politics puts the Democrats' lead on the generic ballot at 6.8 percent.
Still, FiveThirtyEight gives the GOP about a three in 10 chance of holding on to its House majority. Also, much can change to affect races during the nearly three months between now and the Nov. 6 elections — both at the national level and in individual districts.