This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on August 30, 2018, Thursday.
Argentine peso plummeted again overnight, indicating Argentina Central Bank's currency protection didn't work and peso still faces huge sale off pressure, as well as capital flows. On Tuesday, Argentina Central Bank said in an announcement Argentina has sold $12.8 81 billion in currency markets this year to stabilize the exchange rate as there were total $200million savings were sold in two separate currency auctions. Much of the current negative pressure comes from doubts about Argentina's economic prospects.
Recently, US dollars appreciate strongly, causing many emerging markets currencies declined. And the volatility in currency looms prospect of emerging market countries that with poor financial basement. Among them, the market worries how Argentina raises $82 billion in this and the next year after Argentina asked IMF to speed up funding.
Steve Brice
Chief Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered
We are still seeing that volatility coming through, we saw that in overnight's Argentina peso and and we see Turkish lira aslo. We see these relatively isolated cases but obviously a lot of people are concerned this could be the start of an EM crisis.
Actually, in June this year, Argentina and IMF reaches a loan agreement that worth $50billion and valid for 36months, which is also the most great bailout loan, this agreement calls for Argentina reduce deficit quickly.
It calls Argentina government to cut its fiscal deficit to 2.7% of GDP in 2018 from an earlier forecast of 3.2 %, and that share down to 1.3% in 2019 from an earlier target of 2.2%.additionally, Argentina government hope it can achieve fiscal balance by 2020 and a fiscal surplus by 2021.
While recent turbulence in emerging markets exacerbates Argentina's economy prospect and makes the implementation of this plan uncertain. Early this morning Beijing Time, Managing Director of the IMF Lagarde said in an email that she has appointed some staff to cooperate with Argentina authority to improve the funding support and reexamine the phasing of financial plans. But in a short period, we may see Argentina domestic economy slows down. And the minister of the treasury said on Monday that a 1% decline will be see in Argentina economy in 2018 while a 1.5% increase will come next year.
However, the recent turbulence will make economy get worse, and inflation goes up, pushing up consumption price, and that will led the 2019 president election be more uncertain. Argentina president Macri said Argentina will face a lot of difficulties in the following several months, but Argentina won't default again. However, the markets hold a negative evaluation on its default risk, if Argentina defaults, then the emerging markets will be further affected.